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MARKET MATTERS NEWSLETTER

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June 11, 2026

  • Jun 11
  • 4 min read

More Americans are on the move, latest NAR data shows

National Association of REALTORS®

Existing-home sales perked up last month, with sales rising to the highest level in five months. Improving affordability is bringing more home buyers back into the market, giving home sales a solid boost in May.


Existing-home sales — which includes single-family homes, townhomes, condos and co-ops — rose 3.2 percent last month compared to April’s mostly stagnant sales, the National Association of REALTORS® reported. Annually, home sales also posted a 3.2 percent increase, and as sales rose, so did home prices. Existing-home prices reached a record high nationally for the month of May, with home sellers still standing to benefit from relatively low competition.




Inflation jumps to 4.2%, the highest since early 2023

NBC News

Inflation surged in May to the highest level since early 2023, as Iran war-related fuel costs worked their way through the broader economy. Overall, the yearly inflation rate rose to 4.2 percent in May from a year ago, up 0.5 percent from April. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, energy accounted for more than 60 percent of the total increase in prices over the month. Oil prices have risen 35 percent in the months since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February. Rising inflation also comes as wage growth is falling.


For the second month in a row, inflation surpassed wage growth, which was tracking at 3.4 percent in the most recent jobs report. That pace has slowed since late last year, when average hourly earnings were growing consistently at nearly 4 percent. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced separately that real average weekly earnings decreased 0.2 percent during May and 0.7 percent from a year ago. That’s the biggest year-over-year decline in real earnings since February 2023, according to federal data.




AI is making real estate clients overconfident

The Real Deal

As artificial intelligence (AI) has seeped into daily life, people are turning to it for answers on what to make for dinner, where to visit on a trip or whether the price is too high on a home for sale. However, most clients don’t understand that AI bots do not operate with any standards for ethical behavior, fair housing laws, any understanding that markets vary from state to state or even by neighborhood, and AI bots draft contracts that don’t satisfy state legal requirements.


AI cannot access data that is accessible only to licensed real estate professionals. For example, some multiple listing services (MLSs) do not post updated or all data publicly and limit the most important data for licensed agents and brokers. Often the data AI can access is incomplete or outdated. AI also confidently presents invented data, known as “hallucinations.” Yet many agents report that clients will present data or language from ChatGPT or other AI platforms without understanding why it is incorrect for their situation.




Sold in secret, taxed in the dark: why off-market home sales may raise your property taxes

Realtor.com

Your neighbor’s home sale generates valuable information that can help determine your home’s value, even your property tax bill. But what happens when that home is sold in secret?


In some states, called “nondisclosure” states, home sale prices are withheld from public records. According to a study by a real estate researcher at Emory University, nondisclosure states have stronger rates of appraisal bias and a higher mortgage default probability for the most financially constrained borrowers. Those states often piece together home values from voluntary sales surveys, listing histories, mortgage records, mass-appraisal models and closing documents homeowners provide when they protest their home valuation. Until 2004, New Mexico was a full nondisclosure state. That meant assessors had no guaranteed access to sale prices. Then the state enacted a partial disclosure law, requiring key sale data to be shared with local officials for use in property assessments. Following the transition to partial disclosure, the state saw a roughly 4 percent increase in annual tax revenue, the equivalent of $1.09 million. Lower-priced homes were often assessed at a higher share of their sale price than higher-priced homes, leaving owners of less valuable properties with higher effective tax burdens.




Mortgage demand surges nearly 11%, despite volatile interest rates

CNBC

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher last week, but both current homeowners and potential homebuyers returned to the mortgage market, perhaps for the last spring push. Total mortgage application volume rose 10.8 percent last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.


The average contract interest rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with conforming loan balances ($832,750 or less) increased to 6.60 percent from 6.57 percent, with points decreasing to 0.63 from 0.67, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20 percent down payment. Applications to refinance a home loan rose 15 percent for the week and were 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago. Last year at this time the 30-year fixed rate was 33 basis points higher. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home climbed 7 percent for the week and were 4 percent higher year over year. Given how volatile rates were at the start of the spring sales market, some demand may have been pushed forward, with buyers now giving one last push before the dog days of summer. Consumers may also be taking advantage of lower rates on adjustable-rate mortgages. The ARM share of activity increased last week to 8.6 percent of total applications. The average rate on a five-year ARM last week was 5.96 percent.




 
 
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